The hottest shale gas revolution may trigger a maj

Shale gas revolution or marine industry crisis

shale gas revolution or marine industry crisis

July 24, 2014

[China paint information] at present, the United States has successfully produced shale gas in batches, while China, Australia, Europe and other countries have also accelerated the pace of onshore shale gas exploration. Under this situation, some offshore deepwater energy projects are facing costs and other problems, Development projects have to be delayed or scaled down

according to the outlook of energy industry experts, at present, the shale gas revolution is centered on North America, which may lead to a sharp contraction of the offshore installation industry. In particular, if the oil price drops due to the impact of shale gas, the economy of offshore energy development projects may decline, and the market for offshore drilling equipment such as drilling ships and FPSO, flng and other offshore production equipment may shrink

according to the in-depth report recently released by the global core research center for shipbuilding and ocean (gcrc-sop) of Busan University, South Korea, for South Korean shipyards, the marine device market is the core growth pedal. However, the decline of the marine device market is estimated to remain for some time

after entering this year, the global marine energy development market has been affected by the oversupply of equipment and the expansion of shale gas development in the United States. Despite the high oil price, rental fees have plummeted, and orders for new drilling equipment have fallen sharply. At present, the average daily lease fee of ultra deepwater offshore drilling equipment is 475000-500000 US dollars, a decrease of more than 20% compared with the highest value of 650000 US dollars in 2012. In this case, major drilling enterprises reduce new projects and reduce the scale of investment in the development of so-called strain gage sensors in deep water

the research center also said that at present, the international oil price is as high as $100/barrel, and the era of high oil prices continues. However, the pace of marine development projects cannot be accelerated, and even the investment of major enterprises is delayed or avoided. Such a shrinking market for offshore installations is consistent with the changes in the global energy market, including the official launch of shale gas development projects in the United States and the restart of crude oil exports

according to the analysis, with the successful development of shale gas in the United States and the reduction of energy imports, the speed of energy development in the Gulf of Mexico and other major regions will slow down. Thus, the trend of high oil prices continues, the new energy development market gradually declines, and the dependence on American energy is increasing

maerskdrilling, a Danish drilling company, said that considering the current market conditions, the marine market may not recover until, later than originally expected. The reason why the recovery of the marine energy development market is slow is that the oil enterprises postpone the time of business in order to ensure cash, and the drilling equipment orders in good times begin to work one after another, and the possibility of further decline in rental fees increases again

in addition, according to ima's recent estimate, during the year, the capital cost (capex) of establishing the decarburization layer prediction model of experimental steel under high temperature conditions at the same time as the facility investment of floating offshore production equipment is about 136 billion US dollars, which is lower than the prediction value published at the beginning of last year. The reason is that it is difficult for financing and production enterprises to ensure due to the focal point of the supply chain, the increased complexity of the project, the rising cost, localization control, etc. in addition, There are also reasons related to the diversification of energy sources that can replace investment, such as shale oil/gas projects

at present, although there are many deepwater projects waiting to sign the final investment decision (FID), the implementation time of the final investment project is postponed due to supply chain problems and the availability of alternative resources with high investment charm

ima said that in the short term, energy enterprises will gradually reduce capex budget, shale oil/gas and other non-traditional energy projects in North America will also increase, and marine energy investment projects will show a downward trend. Therefore, the structure corresponding to the single arm structure is the portal structure. In the next months, the EPC contract of floating production equipment may also be delayed or reduced

in addition, it is estimated that with the increase in the production of "tight oil (oil extracted from shale)" in the United States, the production of offshore crude oil, including OPEC, will decline. According to park moo Hyun, a researcher at etrade securities in South Korea, the rapid rise in the production of onshore oil fields and the slow growth in global crude oil demand have cast a shadow on the future outlook of the marine industry, and the charm of the marine industry has also declined

he also analyzed that the crude oil production of the pilot test machine in the United States has increased significantly, while the attention to offshore oil production has decreased. The production of offshore oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the licensing of new deepwater exploration projects have declined following the emergence of tight oil

since the birth of tight oil in 2011, the onshore crude oil production in the United States has increased significantly, but the offshore crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has decreased by about 18%, and the productivity of drilling equipment has increased due to technological innovation, so the demand for new drilling equipment will not rise again